beGM - Draft - komentarze

[ozzy110]

2 godziny temu, ignazz napisał:

San Antonio Spurs

#8 Franz Maurer Wagner aus Deutchland 

 

@january

I nice. Oficjalnie kolejni bracia w NBA

Gratulacje od Mo dla Franza

[MMM2121]

W sumie dopiero dla mnie 1 zaskoczenie tego draftu. Ale lubie ten pick Gm-a Bostonu 

[Braveheart22]

28 minut temu, shevcu napisał:

12. Sacramento Kings select Jalen Johnson

@Principe chyba teraz Ty

Trochę mnie zaskoczyłeś muszę przyznać, że akurat jego dokładasz do swojego teamu. Oczywiście high risk wybór, ale osobiście go lubię, więc trzymam kciuki, a potencjał jest wyśmienity

[Tecu]

Uprzedzam, że trochę mi to zajmie, koncepcja mi trochę padła. 

Wysłucham ofert za #15, #18, #22

Może być trade down lub pick inż innych lat. 

[shevcu]

20 minut temu, Braveheart22 napisał:

Trochę mnie zaskoczyłeś muszę przyznać, że akurat jego dokładasz do swojego teamu. Oczywiście high risk wybór, ale osobiście go lubię, więc trzymam kciuki, a potencjał jest wyśmienity

Ryzyko spore ale jak wypali to będzie git. Potencjał tego gościa jest wg mnie na top7 draftu. Może w końcu jakiś gracz z draftu odpali grając w Kings bo na razie duet Bridgesow i Robert Williams ruszyli się jak zostali oddani. 

[ignazz]

Jak go oddasz to on ruszy. Spokojnie. Świetny ryzykowny ruch. 

[MarcusCamby]

4 godziny temu, january napisał:

Pels to nie mój zespół, więc z 9 poszedlem bez szaleństw z high risk pickami, bo wskaznik bustability z Bagleyem Wisemanem i Whitem juz w NO jest zbyt wysoki.

Też bym brał Moody, także bardzo dobry wybór.

[ignazz]

Bardzo dobry ruch Tecu. Z tego powodu mogę rozpatrzyć Trade down. Jeżeli ktoś ma upatrzonego gracza to zapraszam do rozmów. Jeżeli nie będzie zainteresowania wybiorę gracza o 18:00

@january daj mi 2 godziny 

[MMM2121]

2 minuty temu, ignazz napisał:

Bardzo dobry ruch Tecu. Z tego powodu mogę rozpatrzyć Trade down. Jeżeli ktoś ma upatrzonego gracza to zapraszam do rozmów. Jeżeli nie będzie zainteresowania wybiorę gracza o 18:00

@january daj mi 2 godziny 

Ja po tobie wybieram, także spokojnie bo kogo nie wybierzesz i tak będę miał mega zagwostke. 

[ignazz]

Ostatni gracz z tier 3 zdjęty. Moim zdaniem gotowy shooter. Dostępny. 

@MMM2121 jedziesz 

[tangiers]

Moje ulubione picki na razie to Moody i Bouknight.

Suggs/Green to fenomenalny duet, mam nadzieje, ze Ash ich nie rozmieni na jakis kasztanow tylko dolozy czym predzej sensownycb grajkow i powalczy o PO. 

btw. Suggs to dla mnie nr 2 tego draftu.

Widze, ze Bulls poszli w fit z Mobleyem. Swietny prospect

[Szulim]

Panowie, jako ze @MMM2121 i @Tecu wybiorą dzisiaj bardzo późno a ja robię po nich wybór w imieniu @człowiek...morza

nie obiecuje ze wydarzy się to dzisiaj bo miałem ciężki dzień i moge być off po 23  

ale z samego rana podejmę się wyboru

[Braveheart22]

14 minut temu, tangiers napisał:

Bouknight

Byłem pewny, że Shevcu trade up robi właśnie po niego 

[tangiers]

5 minut temu, Braveheart22 napisał:

Byłem pewny, że Shevcu trade up robi właśnie po niego 

Bouknight wygladal lepiej w meczach niz w statach. 99% rzutow oddawal z reka na twarzy. Spacing z NBA bedzie dla niego zbawienny.

Edytowane 20 Lipca 2021 przez tangiers

[mac]

Moody imo największy stel tego draftu, ja bym go brał z numerem 5, poza oczywistym top4.

[MMM2121]

Długo się szczypałem z tym wyborem, myślałem ze Kai wgl nie będzie dla mnie nawet dostępny, ale jest dalej kilku gości, których bardzo lubie. 
 

Ogolnie ten wybor jest spowodowany sufitem, który wierze, ze jest naprawdę wysoko, a podłoga nie jest wcale jakoś specjalnie nisko moim zdaniem. 
 

Ziomek dość późno zaczął grać w kosza, ale to jaki ma luz i jaką ma kontrole nad własnym ciałem imho bardzo dobrze mu wróży. 
 

Czy będzie stanowił zagrożenie za 3? Na początku pewnie nie, ale tez wierze w jego rzut, dlatego gdy była okazja wybrać kogoś takiego, to nie ma co żałować. 

Edytowane 20 Lipca 2021 przez MMM2121

[ignazz]

Miałem taki priorytet na Draft:

Wagner

Moody

Sengun

Kai

JJ

 

początkowo nie rozpatrywałem Bouknighta bo te cyfry nie zachwycały  a bardzo wysoko miałem Kai. 
po obejrzeniu pakietu nagle poszybowały akcje Senguna (który może iść w zakresie 7-17 i byłem na 90% pewny ze go wezmę z 8 ) oraz Bouknighta. Spadł nagle mi zapał do Kai. 
on jest w zasięgu spurs wiec go wszyscy na spurstalk prześwietlają:

Great analysis of Kai:

https://www.reddit.com/r/NBA_Draft/c...tm_name=iossmf

[OC] Kai Jones Is A Project Not Worth Taking


I’ve written 3 posts in the past few weeks -- the first advocating against Davion Mitchell, and the next in favor of Alperen Sengun and Usman Garuba. I was often clear in the comments that I’m not dogmatic about my rankings. If Sengun/Garuba go 10 spots lower or Davion Mitchell 20+ spots higher than I think, it’s really no skin off my back. There are no certainties in the draft, and you shouldn’t get too worked up about anything.


I write this to say that I do not feel this way about Kai Jones. **Jones across many mocks is pegged to go in the lottery/mid-first, and I think this would be a disaster.** Jones was a liability as a sophomore, and would need essentially unprecedented growth to warrant a selection that high. I have him as a second rounder, and even then it is difficult to value the pick as he won't receive the playing time he needs to develop.


I will first cover Jones’ overall game. I will then lay out his most direct college statistical comparisons. I will end by comparing his college production to similarly styled current NBA bigs.


**Jones’ Game**


First, the physicals:


||Jones|Average NBA Center|
|:-|:-|:-|
|Height|6'10|6'10|
|Reach|9'2.5|9'2|
|Weight|221|250|
|Wingspan|7'1.75|7'3.5|


Jones has typical measurements for an NBA big man, with only shorter arms and a calorie deficit. But, with the league getting smaller, this is an excellent combine showing.


He did not test athletically, but he’s clearly a superior athlete. He glides to the rim effortlessly for jams, and projects to have some [impressive transition finishes](https://streamable.com/sawdba). Jones also moves well side to side, evidenced by this [swat of Cade Cunningham](https://streamable.com/888q2f) (who himself was a pretty paltry and uncreative interior scorer but that’s for another post). In terms of god given gifts, Jones is big, with the high end athleticism needed to succeed at the next level.


In terms of production, he’s an advanced finisher, putting home 75% of rim attempts ([hoopmath](http://hoop-math.com/Texas2021.php)). He finished the season with a 65 TS%, which would be even higher if he did not enjoy the mid-range J so much. Moreover, these were not often easy lobs. On the brilliantly constructed Texas basketball team, Jones played the 5 next to Greg Brown, or the 4 next to old school big Jericho Sims (this miserable hydra was saved by a talented triumvirate of upperclassman guard play). Adapting to this spacing, Jones often worked from the perimeter, demonstrating the ability to [put the ball on the floor](https://streamable.com/a5qin2), and [finish with grace](https://streamable.com/1zamjt).


It’s easy to see the flashes of an inside out defender with a somewhat high offensive acumen. He also has only been playing basketball for 5 or 6 years, giving hope for some untapped talent. In general, he is raw, but has great size, athleticism, and has shown flashes of talent that has convinced many he is a lottery pick.


**My Issues**


My largest issue with Jones is that he’s discussed as if he is a limitless 18 year old. He’s a 20.5 year old sophomore who started one game behind two generally unimpressive bigs (I can’t stress how not-good Greg Brown is at basketball). If Jones goes in the lottery, **he will be the first non-freshman since Dion Waiters to play under 25 minutes and still be drafted top 14.** Usually, when guys are in a class of their own, it can be really good or really bad. When you’re in a class of two with Dion Waiters, well it’s not great.


**Even in those limited minutes, he was also terribly unproductive**. He almost always shared the floor with Brown or Sims which could depress his block/rebound numbers, but neither of those guys are exactly Hakeem Olajuwon let alone Joel Pryzbilla. **To demonstrate just how perilous his college company is, below are some notable forwards and centers who in their sophomore year charted similar BLK/REB rates to Kai Jones**. I’ve included those player’s assist/turnover rates to paint a picture of their overall production, in addition to made three point field goals. These stats are somewhat cherry-picked (as all are), but should articulate the kind of role Jones will ostensibly play at the next level -- **floor spacer, rebounder, shot blocker, and facilitator**. (I generally use rates as Jones played so little, and it's simply a better metric). 





|Player|3PT FGs|3PT%|REB%|BLK%|AST%|TO%|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|Ben Bentil|52|33%|12.4|3.1|8|9.3|
|Luke Kornet|50|40%|9.8|5.5|10.9|14.6|
|Tyler Lydon|49|39%|13.7|4.7|10.8|13.6|
|Killian Tillie|45|48%|12.9|4.2|11.5|14.1|
|Dylan Windler|37|37%|12.5|3.3|9.6|12.5|
|**Kai Jones**|**13**|**38%**|**11.8**|**4.2**|**5.4**|** 16.8**|


Jones rebounded and blocked shots on comparable levels to a group of under-athletic or undersized 4s and 5s. **This is a guy with great measurements for a center and uber athleticism, yet had a worse block rate than Tyler Lydon.** Not only that, but he made dramatically fewer three pointers than this crop, with by far the worst AST% and highest TO rate. There’s a reason he could not get minutes over Brown and Sims -- he is not good at basketball.


To be clear, this is not simply statistics. This is all readily available in the film:


I’m not going to linger on basic IQ mistakes that every college player makes ([like this](https://streamable.com/gm4bhs) [or this](https://streamable.com/rq8xkl)), but some are day 1 basketball rules such as [do not immediately start dribbling upcourt when you get a rebound](https://streamable.com/pbv44s). There’s also instances of not really understanding [the dimensions of the floor](https://streamable.com/h56wpo), and just general clumsiness[ 1](https://streamable.com/4xeg8a), [2](https://streamable.com/oi3g6d), [3](https://streamable.com/6qsqbt).


This is young basketball stuff, and his basketball years are still quite green. The problem is that he is physically a man, but lacks control over his body. We give 18 year olds a break because they are still developing. It is hard to gives Jones the same leash.


Quite of this clumsiness could of course be salvaged by a high motor, which he totally lacks. Here is the [quintessential Kai Jones play](https://streamable.com/xbkxg1) \-- **he gives up position to go for a steal, falls to the ground, and then just kinda stops playing basketball.** These are often physical plays, but he routinely shows zero fight and less strength as he routinely gets wiped out of post position [1](https://streamable.com/tbcfoj) [2](https://streamable.com/9x01sk) [3](https://streamable.com/tmnjlw) [4](https://streamable.com/jjmndo) [5](https://streamable.com/lna6c1) [6](https://streamable.com/20r0wb). You simply can't explain someone like Jones contributing like Killian Tillie on defense unless they simply don't play hard. These clips are also key to anyone waving away his low rebound/block figures due to playing with other bigs - **they were on the floor because Jones was so hopeless guarding the post or defending the rim.**


**Current NBA Players College Production**


Here I’ve tallied a list of 4/5s to whom Jones would likely play a similar role -- generally thinner bigs with perimeter skills and flexible defense -- and I've slapped together their college numbers upon being drafted (besides Larry Nance) to compare. These are absolutely not perfect comps, but more aim for the role Jones might play in the NBA (sorted by PTS/40):





|Player|Age|PTS/40|3PT FGs|3Pt%|REB%|BLK%|AST%|TO%|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|John Collins|19.7|28.8|1|0|21.1|6.6|4.5|11.1|
|Kelly Olynyk|22.1|27|9|30%|17.4|5.1|15.1|15.4|
|Zach Collins|19.6|23.2|10|47%|18.4|9.8|4.4|17.8|
|Mike Muscala|20|21.5|4|36%|15.5|8.1|12.2|11.7|
|Lauri Markkannen|20.1|20.2|69|42%|14|1.8|5.6|8.1|
|Jaren Jackson Jr.|18.7|20|38|39%|15|14.3|9.3|17.4|
|Christian Wood|19.8|19.3|25|28%|17|8.2|9.2|14.7|
|Chris Boucher|23.5|18.7|39|34%|16.5|11.8|2.9|10.5|
|Nic Claxton|20.5|16.4|18|28%|14.9|8|12.2|14.7|
|**Kai Jones**|**20.5**|**15.5**|**13**|**38%**|**11.8**| **4.2**|**5.4**|**16.8**|
|Larry Nance|20.5|13.3|10|34%|14.7|2.7|9.8|14.7|





I think these numbers are frankly self-explanatory, but **the long and short of it is that Kelly Olynyk was a better college rebounder and shot blocker than Kai Jones.** Digging a bit deeper, you also find here rail thin players like Jaren Jackson Jr. and Zach Collins (who both played next to bigs in college) who out rebounded Jones, while doubling and tripling his block rate at younger ages. Christian Wood, a nominal comp with a questionable defensive role in the NBA, blocked shots at 2x the rate and was a far better rebounder, on top of making more threes and better facilitating. The only player here who Jones remotely resembles is Larry Nance Jr., who is 2.5 inches shorter and quite a bit more skilled at the same age (he also was a late first rounder 2 years after putting up those numbers). Somehow, Lauri Markkanen, who didn't dribble in college, touted a better assist rate (and better rebounding). It's difficult to stress how far behind this cohort he is at the point of being drafted.


In conclusion, **Jones skill level compares to extremely athletic but unskilled bigs, while his athletic stats (rebounds, blocks) compares to skilled, undersized bigs.** This is a very startling suite of statistics for a possibly lottery pick. The only explanation is that he hasn’t been playing basketball very long, **which at some point is not a positive. He’s going to have to learn basic fundamentals to contribute, and will need considerable time in the D-league**. Any team that drafts him will have to be patient, but also calibrate the necessity of investing so much in someone who will already be 21 by their first NBA game. I have about 40+ guys above Jones on my board, and as a second rounder I’m not sure he’s worth it. Why invest so many resources when by the time he’s developed he’ll likely be on another team?

 

[RonnieArtestics]

k**** ignazz ty się nie nauczysz nigdy tekstów wrzucać  

[MMM2121]

Dlatego Kai to w jakimś stopniu ryzykowany wybor, ale uwzględniając background Kaia, czyli późny wiek zaczęcia gry w kosza(wcześniej lekkoatletyka), to totalnie kupuje, to ze on ma czas na rozwój. Po prostu mało jest gości, o tych parametrach, którzy maja taka kontrole nas ciałem podczas atakowania kosza. On we właściwym środowisku dla niego, jak np. Sas czy Hornets. Będzie w stanie się super rozwinąć. Watpie, aby na początku zachwycał, ale przy niektórych prospectach należy być cierpliwym.  

[ozzy110]

Ktoś chce wymienić pick z przedziału 20-30. Znalazłem fajnego grajka i chętnie się za coś wymienię